It’s been 80 days since President Trump took office, setting off a seismic shift in the policy and spending priorities of the U.S. federal government. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the moves being made, it is undeniable these changes are impacting or will soon impact broad swaths of America’s delivery and implementation infrastructure—state and local government, nonprofits, and philanthropy—both inside and outside the U.S. The challenge for everyone in this environment is to discern patterns in the noise and determine the best course of action—even as uncertainty remains.

No sector is untouched: President Trump has signed over 100 executive orders, and between the Department of Government Efficiency’s activities and budget negotiations, funding and personnel cuts seem likely at nearly every federal agency. The impact of these changes is now widespread: In the U.S., dozens of regional economic hubs funded by the Economic Development Administration (EDA) and National Science Foundation (NSF) are in limbo about whether their work to advance national security and inclusive workforce development will continue; local school districts are uncertain about whether or how Title I funding will continue to support their students. Outside the U.S., the changes are also profound, as a wide range of multilateral development organizations in public health, education, climate, and economic development face a radically changed resource landscape and major shifts to the global institutions that underpin much of their work.

We’re working closely with partners to make sense of these changes and support effective delivery, and have launched a Rapid Response Unit to better understand the landscape and support our partners’ decision-making. 

In the first 80 days of this work, a few major themes have emerged: 

• Everyone will be doing more with less. While initially billed as a 90-day hold, the staffing cuts and grant program freezes that have already been implemented (and that are likely to be codified in future funding agreements) are turning into permanent staff reductions and canceled program funding—including grants.

• The changes are deep but uneven. In our work leading the Community Funding Accelerator, we’ve seen nuances beneath the headlines. Some grants are being cut or eliminated, while others continue with few or no changes at all.

• The shifting legal landscape makes compliance—and program delivery overall—more challenging. The range of executive orders and associated legal disputes have made almost all organizations more risk averse: For example, the executive orders focused on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) are broad, thus creating uncertainty among organizations receiving federal funding (and those subject to other types of enforcement) about which programming is or isn’t allowed. 

• We should be ready to see changes in roles across governments of all levels and the organizations surrounding them. As entire federal capabilities like the U.S. Department of Education and USAID shrink or disappear, other forms of government will have to manage these transitions, funding changes, and devolutions. However, in addition to presenting many challenges, this moment also presents an opportunity for the social sector—and for our public and private sector partners at the local level—to step in to deliver more effectively and innovatively.

A framework to help public leaders navigate uncertainty well

In our work with partners, we’re utilizing an emerging rapid response framework to help make sense of the current environment. It consists of 3 R’s: Respond, Recover, and Rebuild. Here’s a closer look at each.

Respond. We know from disruptions like COVID-19 and natural disasters that public and social sector leaders need to focus first on responding to short-term issues. This is where most organizations are currently: understanding what no longer exists and how to help those impacted. For some, this means finding ways to deliver services formerly provided by the federal government, often in quick and ad hoc ways. For others, this includes taking legal action or telling stories that demonstrate the benefit of specific programs to forestall further cuts or advocate for funding restoration. 

Real-time, ongoing intelligence is essential to understand the situation and determine an effective response. So far, we’ve helped federally funded organizations conduct risk assessments and monitor their financial health, and have provided guidance and insights on how federal actions will affect potential current and future funding streams. For example, we helped one community organization that was the recipient of a NSF grant to assess financial health and review budget and timeline alignment, and we also advised on the drawdown process to ensure compliance with NSF requirements while maintaining momentum and program delivery.

Another partner organization that assists communities with the federal grant application process has begun offering legal advisory services to help these communities understand current legislation changes, review grants, and determine potential impacts on active programs. We offered sessions with our network of subject matter experts to help current applicants unpack grant solicitation changes and resubmit grants aligned with the new regulations.

Recover. Response eventually gives way to recovery, where leaders must assess the new needs and determine how to meet them. Organizations and governments are already seeking ways to deliver services and outcomes with reduced funding. For some, it may be possible to directly take on work that the U.S. federal government previously supported. Nigeria, for example, has already begun hiring community health workers let go as part of USAID cuts. 

However, for most this will not be a quick process—local and state governments and nonprofits need to evaluate impacts and available resources to understand the greatest need, then work together on creative strategies for delivering with less funding (or a patchwork of funding streams). We worked with partners to help cities navigate a new budgetary environment during COVID-19, providing tools to help them develop revenue-generation strategies without exasperating existing inequalities. Leaders at all levels are once again grappling with similar questions. 

Rebuild. Based on history, we know that after leaders respond and begin to recover, additional work will be required to reach a new and even better normal. While this feels far off for leaders facing immediate needs and uncertainty, building a long-term vision is critical for guiding near-term action. The current context of rapid cuts reflects, among other things, frustration with government’s role and suggests a need to deliver more effectively and visibly for constituents.

While it is possible, for instance, that some USAID programs may be reinstated, any reinstatement will also present an opportunity to use these dollars more effectively—being responsive to legitimate concerns about how aid was spent in the past, and creating space and roadmaps for a broader re-imagining than we had ever thought possible. We must find ever more sophisticated ways to measure the public’s value for money, thus proving the worth of an investment and building trust. 

Building the capacity of other governments and institutions—which have been under-invested in both the Global North and Global South for a generation—will be critical. We can no longer avoid or ignore the essential role government capacity plays in economic development, benefits delivery, or health. Put simply, there is no route to effective program delivery that does not run through government capacity as a scaling factor. 

Moving forward despite uncertainty

Every day we work with partners considering actions in all three areas—Respond, Recover, and Rebuild—as shown in the downloadable framework below. It’s critical for partners to assess how they can make their greatest contributions in each lane over time, though it may not be feasible or appropriate for everyone to play a role in each. While we continue to face collective uncertainty, it must not stop any of us from taking action.

Photo by Jason Goodman on Unsplash